...on The Perils of Self-Examination

Drinks with K last night which is always a delight. It was also educational. We tend to push each other when we argue and her relentless logic can not be thwarted.

The latest revelation is pretty depressing. Those who know me call me as a cynic. Those who know me well call me a romantic. I'm not sure you can do the cynic thing without a romantic heart. If the failures of the world didn't wound there'd be no point in snark. You'd just accept it and move on.

One of my articles of faith was that humanity had a bright future ahead of it. For our entire history we've been stalked by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Famine, Plague, War and Death. For most of the population things are still horrific, but a small but expanding minority gets to live in THE FUTURE.

Most First Worlders have never known hunger for more than a day or two. Polio, smallpox and the Black Death aren't terrors, they are dim history. War hasn't threatened our homes or family since World War II. Developments in biotechnology might even give Death a run for his money before the century is out.

It was going to be hard, and it wasn't going to be perfect. But with the Power of Science! at our disposal we would eventually make things better for everyone. Hell, there are diseases killing millions in Africa that could be elminated with sensible governments and a few billion dollars today. The future was so bright, I had to wear shades.

Then 9/11 happened and everybody went nuts. Not that 9/11 changed anything, this country always had a dark, paranoid undercurrent. But it gave people an excuse to embrace their fear and hatred. Unfortunately the Shrub was there to capitalize on and ride that tidal wave of gibbering insanity all the way into a second term. Our economy, environment, laws, freedom, military and moral strength also got swept away by that same tidal wave, but when you are surfing that righteous fear wave you've got to ride until it breaks.

So America got written off. I love this country, but we turned our back on the future. When religious nutjobs have even a remote shot at taking evolution out of the schools you know you are in trouble. We may get back on the horse, but it will take decades to undo the damage that's been done.

But the ideal is still out there. America may have dropped the torch of Liberty, but we aren't the only ones in this race. The Japanese and the Europeans are still down with rationality. That means the first cruiseship touring Saturn's rings will probably be the Queen Beatrix instead of the Benjamin Franklin but those are the breaks.

K disagrees. The same technology that will let us cure cancer and build discos on the moon can be used to make weapons capable of destroying cities. How can long can the Enlightenment last when any tech-college graduate with a grievance can build a fusion device or superplague in his basement? Even a 1984-style surveliance state will have failures and it all ends in a hail of nuclear fire and societal chaos. Good run while it lasted, but our system depends on keeping insane people in check and that's obviously failed.

"Look, I understand your point," I said. "There are going to be a lot of dangers out there, but I can't believe that a culture that developed contract law, vaccinations and cheap air travel is going to collapse because of screwheads with a grudge. If I was a betting man...."

Mistake. Big mistake. K pounced on it immediately and demanded to know the odds I would take.

Long. Which was embarassing to admit. Rationally I wouldn't put money on my vision of the future unless the odds were ridiculously in my favor. That means deep down inside I'm as pessimistic as K. I don't believe in humanity, I'm just rooting for the home team.